<p>When former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour spoke at the NACDS Annual Meeting in April, he described four Senate races that have increased in competitiveness, and that have increased the chances that the Senate majority could be up for grabs in 2014.<br />
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Barbour – who also served two terms as chairman of the Republican National Committee – told attendees at the Chain Members and Political Action Committee Breakfast that conventional wisdom maintained until recently that the Democratic Party likely would maintain control of the U.S. Senate after the 2014 elections. However, he said that elections for four seats “have come into play”: those in Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia. He added that Iowa also could be considered a fifth newly competitive seat, with Sen. Tom Harkin (D) not seeking a fifth term.<br />
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NACDS.org has compiled this information from <em>Real Clear Politics</em> about the four newly competitive races identified by Barbour to assist in readers’ evaluation of the electoral environment:<br />
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<em><strong>Michigan<br />
</strong></em><strong><em><br />
</em></strong>Incumbent: Sen. Carl Levin (D) – not seeking a seventh term<br />
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<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mi/michigan_senate_land_vs_peters-3820.html">Real Clear Politics</a> says:<br />
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“The big question for 2014 is which electorate will show up. Republicans have a credible candidate in Terri Lynn Land, a former secretary of state. Democrats also have a good candidate in Rep. Gary Peters, who represented the Detroit suburbs before winning a competitive primary for a majority African-American district. Polls show Land with a reasonably consistent lead, but she is a long way from 50 percent. While this remains a tossup, it is hard to see a path to victory for Land until she starts getting above 46 percent of the vote, or so, in polls.”<br />
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<em><strong>Colorado<br />
</strong></em><strong><em><br />
</em></strong>Incumbent: Sen. Mark Udall (D) – running for a second term<br />
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<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html">Real Clear Politics</a> says:<br />
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“When Mark Udall began this cycle, most analysts thought that he was invulnerable. But his approval ratings have sunk along with the president’s. Compounding matters, Rep. Cory Gardner, a rising star in the state Republican Party, changed his mind and opted to challenge Udall in the general election…The polls have Udall narrowly ahead, but well under 50 percent. This is very much a tossup.”<br />
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<em><strong>New Hampshire<br />
</strong></em><strong><em><br />
</em></strong>Incumbent: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – running for a second term<br />
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<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html">Real Clear Politics</a> says:<br />
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“Republicans are hoping that New Hampshire will swing back in their direction again in 2014, allowing them to recapture the U.S. House seats as well as the Senate seat that Shaheen claimed in 2008. To that end, they have recruited former Sen. Scott Brown from Massachusetts, who lost to Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Brown is probably a better fit for the state ideologically than Shaheen (who isn’t a bad fit herself), but he bears the carpetbagger label and Shaheen is personally popular. Right now it looks like a wave election would be needed to drag Shaheen under, but that might be where we’re headed.”<br />
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<em><strong>Virginia<br />
</strong></em><strong><em><br />
</em></strong>Incumbent: Sen. Mark Warner (D) – running for a second term<br />
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<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html">Real Clear Politics</a> says: In 2008, “former Gov. Mark Warner, one of the original ‘New Democrats’ to win statewide office in the Old Dominion, won the Senate seat of Sen. John Warner by a 31-percentage-point margin over former Gov. Jim Gilmore. Warner carved out a center-left path in the Senate, although, like most Democrats, he voted for a large portion of President Obama’s agenda in the 111th Congress. Warner faces former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie in the general election. Gillespie will have access to plenty of money, but Warner remains personally popular. How competitive this race becomes probably turns on whether the atmosphere improves or not for Democrats by Election Day.”</p>
